National Housing Shortage to Fuel Unit Demand

A recent report produced by the National Housing Supply Council (NHSC) has reaffirmed signs that Australia’s chronic property shortage is set to be one of the key issues underlying the real estate market for years to come.

The NHSC’s report titled the ‘State of Supply Report 2011’ shows that Australia's overall shortage of dwellings currently sits at 186,800 and is projected to hit 640,000 by 2030.

In terms of sheer numbers, the largest housing shortfalls are in NSW and Queensland, says the report, with shortfalls of 73,700 and 61,900 respectively.

Key factors behind Australia's national housing shortage include:

• The country's high rate of population growth;
• A weak post-GFC construction market;
• Australia's ageing population;
• Significant growth in the number of lone-person households; and
• Significant growth in the number of households containing couples without children.

The report states that as a result of these underlying factors, the NHSC expects higher density housing to increase in popularity in the coming decades.

"Most regions are projected to see a greater relative increase in demand for flats, apartments and townhouses than for detached houses," says the report.

Far North Queensland is one of the fastest growing regions in the State. Between 2001 and 2006 FNQ had the third highest growth rate and absolute growth outside South East Queensland. This growth has largely been driven by net migration, with natural increases remaining relatively steady.

Current population projections for FNQ to 2031 are shown in the second graph. High, medium and low series projections have been prepared to consider a range of potential future outcomes.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

Key finding of the recent NHSC 'State of Supply Report 2011' report include:

• Despite weaker market conditions, the housing shortage continues to widen.
• Underlying demand for housing grew by an estimated 159,200 dwellings in the year to 30 June 2010 – slightly more than the 156,500 forecast in the 2010 report.
• Net additional housing supply  increased by 131,000 dwellings over the same period, below the 140,700 projected in the 2010 report.
• The gap between these measures of underlying demand and supply increased by 28,200 to 186,800  over 2009-10.
• The largest housing shortfalls in numerical terms are in NSW and Queensland, with shortfalls of 73,700 and 61,900 respectively.
• Relative to the size of its market, the largest shortfall is in the Northern Territory, where the Council estimates the shortfall to exceed 10 per cent of total underlying demand.
• Data from the states and from the Council’s analysis of recent building approvals data suggest that supply is likely to fall short of the medium-growth projections (meaning a larger gap) in the short term.
• Projections, based on trend building rates and household growth, suggest that this gap could increase to over 640,000 over the next 20 years .
• This growing gap indicates that housing production needs to lift well above trend to reduce the likelihood that housing shortages and poor affordability impact adversely on economic growth and standards of living.

View the full ‘State of Supply Report 2011’ report at the NHSC website HERE

Peter Musso licensed real estate agent at Ray White Cairns Beaches selling property in Cairns' beautiful northern beach suburbs including Trinity Beach, Kewarra Beach, Clifton Beach, Palm Cove, Trinity Park, Smithfield, Yorkeys Knob, Holloways Beach, Machans Beach, Caravonica and surrounds.